The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the monsoon is expected to be normal across most parts of the country in July, except for certain regions of eastern Uttar Pradesh and south Bihar. However, above-normal temperatures are anticipated throughout the month. The IMD predicts that the monthly rainfall for July 2023 will likely be within the normal range, with a probability of being on the higher side.
In June, several states and union territories experienced deficient rainfall, with Bihar and Kerala reporting significant deficits of 69 percent and 60 percent below normal, respectively. States such as Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana also received less rainfall during June, the initial month of the southwest monsoon season.
Despite the below-normal rainfall in June, historical data suggests that when June experiences deficient rainfall, July tends to have normal rainfall. The IMD official highlighted this pattern. During June, there were heavy rainfall events reported across the country, with some weather stations recording extremely heavy rains. This indicates localized heavy precipitation in certain areas.
According to the IMD’s bulletin, the spatial distribution analysis suggests that central India, south peninsular India, east India, and parts of Northeast and Northwest India are likely to experience normal to above-normal rainfall. However, below-normal rainfall is expected in many areas of northwest India, northeast India, and southeast peninsular India.
The senior official from the weather department also mentioned that despite the potential emergence of the El Nino weather pattern, India is expected to receive an average amount of rainfall in July. This forecast is encouraging for farmers who have been struggling with inconsistent rainfall in June. They can now expedite the planting of crops, as the monsoon season plays a crucial role in India’s agriculture-dependent economy.
The monsoon season is of great significance to India’s $3 trillion economy, as it typically provides around 70% of the necessary rainfall for irrigation, replenishing reservoirs, and maintaining aquifers. Additionally, it brings relief from the intense summer heatwaves experienced across the country.
Overall, the IMD’s prediction of normal rainfall in July brings hope for farmers and the agricultural sector. It is crucial for adequate rainfall to support crop growth, enhance water resources, and maintain the overall ecological balance. While certain regions may face challenges due to deficient rainfall in June, the forecast for normal rainfall in July provides an opportunity for recovery and progress in agricultural activities. The IMD’s continuous monitoring and accurate predictions play a vital role in assisting farmers, policymakers, and various sectors that rely on monsoon rainfall.