In December of the previous year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy drew parallels between the battle for Bakhmut and the historic Battle of Saratoga during his speech at the U.S. Congress. He expressed his belief that the fight for Bakhmut would have a significant impact on Ukraine’s war for independence and freedom. However, five months later, the city of Bakhmut remains outside of Ukraine’s control. Russia’s Ministry of Defence recently announced the capture of Bakhmut, marking its first major territorial gain since taking the neighboring city of Soledar in January. While Ukraine claims to have troops defending a small area of Bakhmut and making advances on its flanks, it acknowledges that the city is effectively under Russian control for the time being.
For Russia, the capture of Bakhmut represents a crucial victory following a series of setbacks it faced late last year when Ukrainian forces pushed them back from the Kharkiv Oblast and Kherson city. With control over Luhansk and the potential to target other major urban centers in Donetsk, such as Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, Russia gains strategic advantages in its invasion of Ukraine.
Russia’s initial thrust into Ukraine did not achieve its objectives, but it appears to be learning from its battlefield mistakes, transforming the conflict into a protracted war of attrition. According to a recent report by the Royal United Services Institute, Russia has improved its battlefield tactics, coordination, supplies, electronic warfare capabilities, and air defense systems. The fighting in Bakhmut resulted in significant losses for Russia, but much of the combat was carried out by Wagner, a private military corporation, which allowed regular Russian troops and the recently mobilized 300,000 soldiers to focus on fortifying the over 1,000-kilometer frontline and undergoing training.
Ukraine, on the other hand, had been preparing for a major counteroffensive, but the delay suggests that it has encountered challenges on the battlefield. Earlier this year, leaked U.S. intelligence documents partially revealed Ukraine’s battlefield problems. However, thanks to support from Western countries, Ukrainian troops now possess advanced weaponry. In recent months, Ukraine has also launched attacks inside Russia, utilizing drones, medium-range artillery fire, and saboteurs, bringing the conflict closer to Putin’s doorstep. With these advanced capabilities, Ukraine is placing its bets on a successful counteroffensive and its ability to create disruptions inside Russia.
To recover from setbacks in Soledar and Bakhmut, Ukraine will need to swiftly regain lost territories. Meanwhile, Russia seeks to capitalize on the momentum gained from capturing Bakhmut. Both sides remain resolute in continuing the war, leaving little hope for peace talks or a resolution in the near future.
The conflict in Ukraine remains a complex and volatile situation, with geopolitical implications extending beyond the region. As the war continues, the suffering and displacement of civilians persist, and the international community faces the challenge of finding a way to resolve the crisis and bring stability to the region.